Phase 0 trials assist the scientists in studying the behaviour of drugs in humans by micro dosing patients. They are used to speed up the developmental process. They have no measurable therapeutic effect and efficiency.

Key Point: While finding out confidence intervals, standard errors are used. Standard error and Standard deviation are two distinct entities and should not be confused.

For 99.7% confidence interval, you can find the range as follows:

Multiply the standard error by 3.

Subtract the answer from mean value to get the lower limit.

Add the answer obtained in step 1 from the mean value to get the upper limit.

The range turns out to be 1-13 mmol/L.

For a confidence interval of 68%, multiply the standard error with 1 and repeat the process. The range found for this interval is 3-11 mmol/L.

For a 95% confidence interval. Standard Error is multiplied by 1.96 which gives us the limit ranging from 3.08 to 10.92 mmol/L which could be approximated to 3-11 mmol/L.

When the association among any two classes of object is defined by the presence of a third entity it is termed as indirect association. For an instance, the age of the employee may affect the rate of pay, which would have implications on job satisfaction. So, in this example, an indirect relationship between age and job satisfaction exists due to a third party i.e. rate of pay.

Recall bias introduced when participants in a study are systematically more or less likely to recall and relate information on exposure depending on their outcome status.

In procedure bias, the researcher decides assignment of a treatment versus control and assigns particular patients to one group or the other non-randomly. This is unlikely to have occurred in this case, although it is not mentioned specifically.

Self Selection or volunteer bias occur when those subjects are selected to participate in the study who are not the representative of the entire target population. those subjects may be from high socio-economic status and practice those activities or lifestyle that improves their health.

Lead-time bias occurs when a disease is detected by a screening test at an earlier time point rather than it would have been diagnosed by its clinical appearance. In this bias, earlier detection improves the survival time in the intervention group.

The null hypothesis states that there is no significant difference between two groups.

The alternative hypothesis states that there is a significant difference between two groups.

A type I error (false positive) occurs when a null hypothesis is rejected when it should be accepted.

A type II error (false negative) occurs when the alternative hypothesis is rejected when it should be accepted.

The probability determines the rejection of a null hypothesis.

The level of significance is set at p <0.05.

The incidence of a disease is the number of new cases of the disease in a population over a defined time period.

The prevalence of a disease is the number of cases of the disease in a population over a defined time period describes. It is NOT the number of new cases.

The number of new cases of a disease only, has no denominator (time period or population) from which to derive an incidence.

The number of new cases of a disease seeking medical treatment is the incidence of patients seeking medical treatment NOT the incidence of the disease in a population.

The death rate from a disease is the number of patients dying from the disease in a population.

The normal distribution is a symmetrical, bell-shaped distribution in which the mean, median and mode are all equal.

Observation bias occurs when the behaviour of an individual changes that results from their awareness of being observed.

Recall bias introduced when participants in a study are systematically more or less likely to recall and relate information on exposure depending on their outcome status.

Attrition bias is a systematic error caused by unequal loss of participants from a randomized controlled trial (RCT). In clinical trials, participants might dropout due to unsatisfactory treatment or efficacy, intolerable adverse events, or even death.

Selection bias introduced when the individuals are not chosen randomly to take a part in the study. It usually occurs when the research decides who is going to be studied, they are not the representative of the population.

Lead-time bias occurs when a disease is detected by a screening test at an earlier time point rather than it would have been diagnosed by its clinical appearance. In this bias, earlier detection improves the survival time in the intervention group.

The data is ideal for chi square test evaluation as it will help determine if observed outcomes are in line with expected outcomes, and also if results are significant or due to chance.

The student’s t test is not ideal as it requires comparison of means from different populations, rather than proportions.

Pearson’s coefficient of linear regression is not ideal as it requires the plotting of a linear regression.

The numbers should be analysed before determining if there are any statistical conclusions that can be drawn from the population.

Statistical analysis is always required to determine the performance of any treatment during a clinical drug trial. Conclusions cannot be drawn simply by looking at the data.

Mean, also known as the average, is the most common measure of central tendency. It is the sum of all observed values divided by the number of observation. It is not useful for skewed data, which has an abnormal distribution. It is useful, instead, for numerical data that have symmetric distribution. It reflects the contributions of each data in the group, and are sensitive to outliers.

The median is the value that falls in the middle position when the observations are ranked in order from the smallest to the largest. If the number of observations is odd, the median is the middle number. If it is even, the median is the average of the two middle numbers. Unlike the mean, the median is useful on skewed data, and can be used for ordinal or numerical data if skewed.

The mode is the value that occurs with the greatest frequency in a set of observations, and is utilized for bimodal distribution.

The variance and the standard deviation are not measures of central tendency, but of dispersion.

Phase 2 trials involve patients that are suffering from the disease under study and are associated with determining the efficiency and the optimum dosage of the drug.

Phase 0 trials assist the scientists in studying the behaviour of drugs in humans by micro dosing patients. They are used to speed up the developmental process. They have no measurable therapeutic effect and efficiency.

Phase 1 is associated with assessing whether a drug is safe to use or not. The process is extensive and can take up to several months. It also involves healthy participants (less than 100) that are paid to take part in the study. The side effects upon increasing dosage are also addressed by the study. The effects the drug has on humans including how its absorbed, metabolized and excreted are studied. Approximately 70% of the drugs pass this phase.

Number needed to treat (NNT) is a time specific epidemiological measure that indicates how many patients would be require for an intervention to prevent one additional bad outcome. A perfect NNT would be 1, where everyone improves with treatment, thus the higher the NNT, the less effective the treatment.

Thus if you treat 1000 patients then you will expect to have 50 fewer strokes.

Its known that 68.3% of the total values of a normally distributed variable are found within a range of 1 standard deviation from the mean which makes the range to be 4.3 to 4.9 mmol/L.

The hazard ratio (HR) is simply a comparison of two hazards in a study. It provides an estimate of the ratio of the hazard rates between the experimental group and a control group over the entire study duration. It is typically used when analysing survival over time, hence is the most suitable statistical method in this case.

An odds ratio is a statistic that quantifies the strength of the association between two events, A and B. It is the “measure of association” for a case-control study.

The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (Pearson’s correlation, for short) is a measure of the strength and direction of association that exists between two variables. An example would be if scientists wanted to evaluate the relationship between quality of certain population of rice and their genetic make-up.

Relative risk is the ratio of the risks for an event for the exposure group to the risks for the non-exposure group. Thus relative risk provides an increase or decrease in the likelihood of an event based on some exposure. Relative risk measures the association between the exposure and the outcome.

Absolute risk reduction is the number of percentage points your own risk goes down if you do a preventive act such as stop drinking alcohol. It depends on what your risk factors are to begin with.

Randomisation allows for performance of experimental trials in a random order. Using this method gives us control over the confounding variables that are not supposed to be held constant.

For an instance, by employing randomisation we get to control biological differences among individual human beings during experimental trials.

ARR= (Risk factor associated with the new drug group) — (Risk factor associated with the currently available drug)

So,

ARR= (10/400)-(20/400)

ARR= 0.025-0.05

ARR= 0.025 (Numerical Value)

Only on rare occasions has it been found that the prevalence and incidence were same. Incidence can be greater than prevalence in acute cases only. In case of chronic diseases prevalence is far greater than incidence. One needs to have a deeper understanding of both the concepts to understand the health literature.

Both incidence and prevalence are indicators of the disease frequency. While incidence tells us about the number of cases reported per population in a provided time period, prevalence is the factor you should be vigilant about as it tells us about the total number of cases that have been reported in a population at a particular point of time.

The Delphi is a group facilitation technique that seeks to obtain consensus on the opinions of `experts’ through a series of structured questionnaires (commonly referred to as rounds). By using successive questionnaires, opinions are considered in a non-adversarial manner, with the current status of the groups’ collective opinion being repeatedly fed back. Studies employing the Delphi make use of individuals who have knowledge of the topic being investigated

The following terms are used in medical testing:

True negative – The test is negative and the patient does not have the disease.
True positive – The test is positive and the patient has the disease.
False positive – The test is positive but the patient does not have the disease.
False negative – The test is negative but the patient has the disease.

The sensitivity of a predictive test = true positives / (true positives + false negatives).

The specificity of a test = true negatives / (false positives + true negatives).

The negative predictive value of a test = true negatives / (false negatives + true negatives).

Absolute risk reduction = (Control event rate) – (Experimental event rate)

Experimental event rate = 24 / 120 = 0.2

Control event rate = 60 / 240 = 0.25

Absolute risk reduction = 0.25 – 0.2 = 0.05 = 5% reduction

Hypochondriasis is an illness anxiety disorder, and describes excessively worriedness about the presence of a disease. While the woman is concerned about her possibility of developing motor neurone disease, she understands that no symptoms have yet appeared. Hypochondriasis involves patients who refuse to accept that they don’t have the disease, even if the results come back negative.

Late Look Bias occurs when the data is gathered or analysed at an inappropriate time e.g. when many of the subjects suffering from a fatal disease have died. This type of biasness might occur in some retrospective studies of motor neurone disease, but is not applicable to this prospective study.

In procedure bias, the researcher decides assignment of a treatment versus control and assigns particular patients to one group or the other non-randomly. This is unlikely to have occurred in this case, although it is not mentioned specifically. Of all the options, lead time-bias is a better answer.

The Hawthorne Effect refers to groups modifying their behaviour simply because they are aware of being observed. Any differences in the behaviour have not been mentioned in the question, and it is highly unlikely that a change in patient’s behaviour would have affected their length of survival in this case.

The correct option is lead-time bias. Even if the new blood test diagnoses the disease earlier, it doesn’t affect the outcome, as the survival time was still on average 43 months from the onset of symptoms in both groups. With the help of blood test, the disease was only detected 8 months earlier.

Attributable proportion is the proportion of disease that is caused due to exposure. It refers to the proportion of disease that would be eradicated from a particular population if the disease rate was diminished to match that of the unexposed group.

Risk ratio (relative risk) compares the probability of an event in an exposed (experimental) group to that of an event in the unexposed (control) group. Thus two are not the same.

The attributable risk is the rate of a disease in an exposed group to that of a group that has not been exposed to it i.e. how many deaths did the exposure cause.

Variance and standard deviation indicate the dispersion of the plot from mean value and thus are not really helpful in summarizing the mean.

Range is the difference between maximum and minimum value that is 45 in this case.

The mean in this case is 6.2 due to the presence of an outlier 45. In the presence of outlier mean can be misleading as it is quite sensitive to skewness in data.

Mode is the most frequent value. In this case mode has 4 values: 0,1,2,4.

In case of skewedness, median is the most apt representative of the mean as it is not affected by outliers. In this case since the data set has even values i.e. 10. Median is the average of the 5th & 6th entry after arranging the data in ascending order like that in case of the question (0,0,1,1,2,2,3,4,4,45). This turns out to be 2.

ANOVA is based upon within group variance (i.e. the variance of the mean of a sample) and between group variance (i.e. the variance between means of different samples). The test works by finding out the ratio of the two variances mentioned above. (Commonly known as F statistic).

Since the data is normally distributed, 95% of the values lie with in the interval 70 to 90. This can be calculated as follows:

Interval= Mean ± ( 2 times standard deviation)
= 80 ± 2(5)
= 80 ± 10
= 70 & 90

The rest of the 5% are distributed symmetrically beyond 90 and below 70 which means 2.5% of the values lie above 90.

Randomized controlled trails will be analysed by the intention-to-treat (ITT) approach. It provides unbiased comparisons among the treatment groups. ITT analyses are done to avoid the effects of dropout, which may break the random assignment to the treatment groups in a study.

ITT analysis is a comparison of the treatment groups that includes all patients as originally allocated after randomization.

In order to include such participants in an analysis, outcome data could be imputed which involves making assumptions about the outcomes in the lost participants.

The question mentions a quantitative, ratio scale data set. The use of mean would be ideal under normal circumstances, however, in this situation median is preferred as it is less sensitive to the skewness of data. The median is usually preferred to other measures of central tendency when your data set is skewed (i.e., forms a skewed distribution)

Chi-square test is used to determine the statistically significant different between categorical variables. It also determines the difference between expected frequencies and the observed frequencies.

Mann Whitney U test is used to determine the statistically significant different between two independent groups.

Wilcoxon’s test is the test of dependency. it determines the statistically significant difference between two dependent groups.

Student t-test is one of the most commonly used method to test the hypothesis. It determines the significant difference between the means of two different groups.

ANOVA (analysis of variance) is similar to student’s t-test.

ANOVA is a statistical method used to determines the statistically significant difference between the mean of more than two group. In this experiment as we are dealing with three different group, ANOVA is most suitable test to determine the difference between each groups.

Case control studies in particular are prone to recall bias, people who are suffering from COPD might sometimes relate the ailment to marijuana usage in past and hence contrary to the control group, they are more able to describe to what extent they have been using the drug in the past.

As recommended, all the doctors should make sure that there practice is based on evidence and thus it is paramount that the doctors learn to appraise the paper in a critical manner i.e. ability to detect any potential source of bias.

Detection Bias: Outcomes are more looked for in one group than the other.

Observer Bias: Subjectivity of observers regarding the outcome.

Publication bias: Not publishing the results of a valid study just because they are negative or uninteresting can be termed as publication bias.

Recall bias: Recall bias is specifically appropriate to the case control studies that is when ever the memories retrieved by the participants differ in accuracy.

Response Bias: The participants that filled out the response forms containing information that was going to be used for a trial, don’t represent the target population.

Boyle’s law is correctly stated as it states that the volume of a gas of known mass is inversely proportional with absolute pressure, at a constant temperature.

Beer’s law states that radiation absorption by a solution of known thickness and concentration is identical to that of a solution of double thickness and half concentration.

Bougner’s (or Lambert’s) law states that every layer with the same thickness will absorb the same amount of radiation as it passes through.

Graham’s law states that the diffusion rate of a gas is inversely related to the square root of its molecular weight.

Raoult’s law states that the reduction of a solvent’s vapour pressure is directly proportional to the solute’s molar concentration.

In statistical terms, correlation is used to denote association between two quantitative variables.

The degree of association is measured by a correlation coefficient, denoted by r. The correlation coefficient is measured on a scale that varies from + 1 through 0 to – 1. Complete correlation between two variables is expressed by either + 1 or -1. When one variable increases as the other increases the correlation is positive; when one decreases as the other increases it is negative. Complete absence of correlation is represented by 0.

The two methods are not synonymous as correlation measures the degree of relationship between two variables whereas regression analysis is about how one variable affects another or what changes it has on the other variable. Both are also shown by a different graphical representation.

Normal distribution, also called Gaussian distribution, the most common distribution function for independent, randomly generated variables, and describes the spread for many biological and clinical measurements.

Properties of the Normal distribution

symmetrical i.e. Mean = mode = median

68.3% of values lie within 1 SD of the mean

95.4% of values lie within 2 SD of the mean

99.7% of values lie within 3 SD of the mean

The empirical rule, or the 68-95-99.7 rule, tells you where most of the values lie in a normal distribution: Around 68% of values are within 1 standard deviation of the mean.

Around 95% of values are within 2 standard deviations of the mean. Around 99.7% of values are within 3 standard deviations of the mean.
the standard deviation (SD) is a measure of how much dispersion exists from the mean.

SD = square root (variance)

The empirical rule, or the 68-95-99.7 rule states where most of the values lie in a normal distribution. Around 68% of values fall within 1 S.D of the mean, about 95% within 2 S.D of the mean, and about 99.7% of values within 3 S.D of the mean. Therefore, 95.4% is the most reasonable answer if results are normally distributed.

The relationship between bacterial growth and time is a tear-away exponential. The mathematical relationship between y and x in this case is:

y = ex

Where: the power is x, and the base is e.

Euler’s number (e) is a mathematical constant that is the base for all logarithms occurring naturally. Its value is 2.718.

The statement X increasing with an increase in Y is proportional to Y refers to the change in y in terms of x when considering any exponential relationship.

This is not a build-up exponential, and that is mathematically stated as y = 1-e-kt.

The negative x axis being a horizontal asymptote and the y intercept being 0, 1 are examples of tearaway exponentials , but do not describe an exponential process.

A prospective randomised double blind controlled trial against cyclizine in multiple centres is the most likely to change your practice.

Case controlled studies are efficient in identifying an association between a drug treatment and outcome and are usually conducted retrospectively. They are generally less valued than prospective randomised trials. They cannot generate incidence data, are subject to bias, have difficult selection of controls and can be made more difficult if note keeping is not reliable.

The gold standard in intervention-based studies is randomised controlled double blind trials. Its features are:

Treating all intervention groups identically
Reduction of bias by random allocation to intervention groups
Patients and researchers unaware of which treatment was given until at completion of study
Patients analysed within the group to which they were allocated, and
Analysis focused on estimating the size of the difference in predefined outcomes between intervention groups.

New healthcare interventions should be evaluated through properly designed randomised controlled trials (though there are some potential ethical disadvantages)

Conducting trials in multiple centres is an accepted way of evaluating a new drug as it may be the only way of recruiting sufficient number of patients within a reasonable time frame to satisfy the objectives of the trial. Type II statistical errors will occur if a small numbers of patients is used in study group.

Observers may subconsciously measure or report data in a way that favours the expected study outcome. Therefore, by blinding the study we can eliminate expectation bias.

Recall bias is a systematic error that occurs when the study participants omit details or do not remember previous events or experiences accurately.

Verification can occur during investigations when there is a difference in testing strategy between groups of individuals, which might lead to biasness due to differing ways of verifying the disease of interest.

Nonresponse bias is the bias that occurs when the people who respond to a survey differ significantly from the people who do not respond to the survey.

A distortion that modifies an association between an exposure and an outcome because a factor is independently associated with the exposure and the outcome. Randomization is the best way to reduce the risk of confounding.

Since the data is normally distributed, 95.4% of the values lie with in 2 standard deviations from mean. The rest of the 4.6% are distributed symmetrically outside of that range which means 2.3% of the values lie above 2 standard deviations of the mean.

Funnel plot is essentially a scatterplot of the effect of treatment against a particular measure of study precision. Its primal purpose is to serve as a visual aid and help in detection of bias or systematic heterogenity.

Being the part of a meta analysis, forest plots are more valued as evidence then randomised control trials.

The notion that forest plots can only be used if the results are substantial is not true. They are good indicators of the significance of the data. If the diamond intersects the central line, the data is rendered significant. It also aggregates means and confidence intervals from studies conducted in the past which makes the study much more reliable as errors associated with individual studies tend to have less of an impact in this way.

The suggestion that forest plots are primarily used for qualitative data is factually incorrect. Forest plots require numerical values to function.

All in all, forest plots help us in determining whether or not there is a significant trend in that particular field of study.

Number needed to treat can be defined as the number of patients who need to be treated to prevent one additional bad outcome.

It can be found as:

NNT=1/Absolute Risk Reduction (rounded to the next integer since number of patients can be integer only).

where ARR= (Risk factor associated with the new drug group) — (Risk factor associated with the currently available drug)

So,

ARR= (0.04-0.03)

ARR= 0.01

NNT= 1/0.01

NNT=100

Level 1 – High-quality randomised controlled trial with statistically significant difference or no statistically significant difference but narrow confidence intervals (prospective controlled)

Level 2 – Prospective comparative study (prospective uncontrolled)

Level 3 – Case-control study, retrospective comparative study (retrospective controlled)

Level 4 – Case series (retrospective uncontrolled)

Level 5 – Expert opinion.

Linear regression, using a technique called curve fitting, allows us to make predictions regarding a certain variable.

Correlation coefficient gives us an idea whether or not the two parameters provide have any relation of some sort or not i.e. does change in one prompt any change in other?

For establishing a cause effect relationship, following criteria must be met:

1. Coherence & Consistency

2. Temporal Precedence

3. Specificity

As can be seen, sensitivity (The probability of a positive test) is not among these deciding factors..

A ‘double blind crossover study’ happens when every patient receive both treatments.

It is incorrect to say that only half of the patients do not know which treatment they receive because in a double blind placebo control clinical trial ALL of the patients are blind to their treatment choice .

If some of the patients are not treated, they would be aware that they were not being treated and it could not be considered a blind trial.

In a double blind placebo control clinical trial both the clinician and the patient are blind to the treatment choice. The clinician assessing the effects of the treatment, therefore, does not know which treatment the patient has been given.

The process used in the study is Delphi method. This method kicks off with an open ended questionnaire and uses its responses as a survey instrument for the next round in which each of the participants is asked to rate the items that the investigators have summarized on the basis of the data collected in the first round.

Any disagreement is further discussed in phases to come on the basis of information obtained from previous phases.

Work up bias involves comparing the novel diagnostic test with the current standard test. A portion of the patients undergo the standard test while others undergo the new test as the standard test is costly. The result can be alteration in specify and sensitivity.

Selection bias is when randomisation is not achieved.

Attention bias refers to the person’s failure to consider various alternatives when he pre occupied by some other thoughts.

Instrument bias is related to the experience and extent of familiarization of the participating individuals with the test.

Co intervention bias is characterized by the groups receiving different co interventions.

99.7% of the values within 3 standard deviations of the mean.

For 99.7% confidence interval, you can find the range as follows:

1. Multiply the standard error by 3.

2. Subtract the answer from mean value to get the lower limit.

3. Add the answer obtained in step 1 from the mean value to get the upper limit.

For a confidence interval of 68%, multiply the standard error with 1 and repeat the process. For a 95% confidence interval, Standard Error is multiplied by 1.96 to get the interval.

Work up bias involves comparing the novel diagnostic test with the current standard test. A portion of the patients undergo the standard test while others undergo the new test as the standard test is costly. The result can be alteration in specify and sensitivity.

Recall bias is specifically appropriate to the case control studies that is when ever the memories retrieved by the participants differ in accuracy.

Not publishing the results of a valid study just because they are negative or uninteresting can be termed as publication bias.

When information gathering is ill suited with respect to time i.e. collecting the data regarding a fatal disease many years after the death of its patients, it is termed as Late – look bias.

The case in point is an instance of lead time bias when upon comparing two tests, one is able to detect the condition earlier than the other but the overall outcome doesn’t change. There is a possibility that this will make the survival rates for the newer test look more promising.

9 & 27 can be obtained by subtracting and adding 9 from the mean. 9 is three times the standard deviation and we know that 99.7% values lie within 3 standard deviations from the mean. We can find the interval for 99.7% to verify in the following way:

For 99.7% confidence interval, you can find the range as follows:

1. Multiply the standard error by 3.

2. Subtract the answer from mean value to get the lower limit.

3. Add the answer obtained in step 1 from the mean value to get the upper limit.

4. The range turns out to be 9-27 kg.

The study is being conducted on a smaller level with only 200 participants and is determining the effectiveness of the drug in comparison to a placebo. These characteristics are in accordance with the second phase of trial.