This clinical trial consists over 1000 patients being evaluated for the response to a new treatment against a currently licensed treatment for ulcerative colitis. Therefore, it is comparing its efficacy to an established therapeutic or control in a larger population of volunteers. These are the characteristics of a phase III clinical trial.

Omitted variable bias occurs when a statistician passes over one or more relevant variables from the study.

Publication bias occurs in publish academic research. it occurs when the results of the study effect the decision whether to publish or not.

Expectation bias occurs when the expectation of a researcher about the results effect the behaviour of the participants. Expectations may come from communication and experiences.

Work up bias occurs in the study of diagnostic test validity, whether a gold standard procedure has been used. work up bias can seriously affect the specificity of the test.

Recall bias introduced when participants in a study are systematically more or less likely to recall and relate information on exposure depending on their outcome status. Recall bias is more potential for Case-control studies.

For establishing a cause effect relationship, following criteria must be met:

1. Coherence & Consistency

2. Temporal Precedence

3. Specificity

As can be seen, sensitivity (The probability of a positive test) is not among these deciding factors..

The Delphi method relies on expert consensus. This method kicks off with an open ended questionnaire and uses its responses as a survey instrument for the next round in which each of the participants is asked to rate the items that the investigators have summarized on the basis of the data collected in the first round. Any disagreement is further discussed in phases to come on the basis of information obtained from previous phases.

Phase 2 trials involve patients that are suffering from the disease under study and are associated with determining the efficiency and the optimum dosage of the drug.

Phase 0 trials assist the scientists in studying the behaviour of drugs in humans by micro dosing patients. They are used to speed up the developmental process. They have no measurable therapeutic effect and efficiency.

Phase 1 is associated with assessing whether a drug is safe to use or not. The process is extensive and can take up to several months. It also involves healthy participants (less than 100) that are paid to take part in the study. The side effects upon increasing dosage are also addressed by the study. The effects the drug has on humans including how its absorbed, metabolized and excreted are studied. Approximately 70% of the drugs pass this phase.

The null hypothesis states that there is no significant difference between two groups.

The alternative hypothesis states that there is a significant difference between two groups.

A type I error (false positive) occurs when a null hypothesis is rejected when it should be accepted.

A type II error (false negative) occurs when the alternative hypothesis is rejected when it should be accepted.

The probability determines the rejection of a null hypothesis.

The level of significance is set at p <0.05.

An epidemic is declared when the increase in a give disease is above a certain level in a specific interval of time.

An endemic is the general, usual level of a disease in a population at a particular time.

A pandemic is an epidemic that is spread across many countries and continents.

The degree of correlation is summarised by the correlation coefficient (r). This indicates how closely the points lie to a line drawn through the plotted data. In parametric data this is called Pearson’s correlation coefficient and can take any value between -1 to +1. A correlation of -1.0 indicates a perfect negative correlation, and a correlation of 1.0 indicates a perfect positive correlation.

For example

r = 1 – strong positive correlation (e.g. systolic blood pressure always increases with age)

r = 0 – no correlation (e.g. there is no correlation between systolic blood pressure and age)

r = – 1 – strong negative correlation (e.g. systolic blood pressure always decreases with age)

Whilst correlation coefficients give information about how one variable may increase or decrease as another variable increases they do not give information about how much the variable will change. They also do not provide information on cause and effect.

In contrast to the correlation coefficient, linear regression may be used to predict how much one variable changes when a second variable is changed.

The Delphi technique was developed in the 1950s and is a widely used and accepted method for achieving convergence of opinion concerning real-world knowledge solicited from experts within certain topic areas. Choosing the appropriate subjects is the most important step in the entire process because it directly relates to the quality of the results generated, despite this, there is no exact criterion currently listed in the literature concerning the selection of Delphi participants.

Therefore, due to the potential scarcity of qualified participants and the relatively small number of subjects used in a Delphi study, the ability to achieve and maintain an ideal response rate can either ensure or jeopardize the validity of a Delphi study.

Selection bias is when randomisation is not achieved and is often a result of in efficient recruiting method.

Recall bias is specifically appropriate to the case control studies that is when ever the memories retrieved by the participants differ in accuracy.

Measurement bias can be characterized by gathering of information in a manner that is distorted.

When the participants of a research study are recruited from the hospitals rather than the general population, its called Berkson Bias.

Confounding bias is the major player here because in this case the effects of smoking can be masked behind and can be read as outcomes of lower socio economic status. This extraneous factor (Smoking), distorts the founding.